Post-covid changes in meat consumption patterns in Mexico: Implications for regional cattle production system

Abstract

This analysis was conducted in the context of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, when uncertainty, preferences, and food supply modified consumption patterns in Mexico. The objective of this study was to analyze variations in expenditures allocated to beef, chicken, and pork during and after the pandemic, considering socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing these choices. A cross-sectional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model was implemented using data from the 2022 Mexican Agricultural Census and the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey from 2018, 2020, and 2022. The findings indicate that income elasticity for beef exhibited an increase from 0.193 in 2018 to 0.223 in 2020, followed by a slight decline to 0.207 in 2022. Elasticities for chicken were 0.212, 0.166, and 0.156, while for pork they were 0.022, 0.055, and 0.040 in the same periods. Higher-income households consistently allocated a greater proportion of their expenditure to beef and chicken, allocating 40-45% more than lower-income households. Conversely, increased consumption of pork has been observed in middle-income quintiles. Households headed by women tended to substitute chicken for beef, while larger households showed a higher propensity to allocate more of their budget to chicken. Regional analysis revealed that areas with a high beef production exhibited significantly higher beef consumption, often at the expense of chicken and pork. During the pandemic, the West and South-Central regions demonstrated the most significant surge in beef consumption. In the post-pandemic period, these trends persisted, accompanied by modest rebounds in chicken and pork purchases. These results underscore that Mexican households adjust their consumption of animal protein in response to changes in income and economic shocks, with substitution patterns varying by meat type, income level, and geography. Strengthening territorial livestock systems and ensuring diversified supply chains could mitigate the adverse impacts of global crises on household nutrition.