Probability of pregnancy before ninety days postpartum in water buffaloes
This study aimed to determine the effect of parity and season of calving on the probability of water buffalo cows becoming pregnant before 90 days postpartum. A retrospective analysis of reproductive records of 1,465 water buffaloes with 3,181 pregnancies was carried out. Buffaloes were grouped according to parity in one, two, or three and more calvings. Season of calving was created with the following values: long photoperiod (March-August) and short photoperiod (September-February) and predicted probabilities from the mixed-effects logistic regression model were calculated, and a generalized linear mixed model was fitted with random intercepts to calculate the log odds of becoming pregnant ≤90 days postpartum. The probability of pregnancy ≤90 days postpartum was 0.3645, and this was lower in primiparous (0.2717) in comparison with two-calved (0.3863) and three or more calving buffaloes (0.5166). Probability of pregnancy ≤90 days postpartum increased 1.77 odds by each increase in parity. The probability of becoming pregnant ≤90 days postpartum was higher in water buffaloes calving during the short photoperiod season (0.4239 vs. 0.2474, P>0.000), and water buffaloes calving during the long photoperiod season only had 0.2645 odds to become pregnant than those calving during the short photoperiod season. The negative effect of long photoperiod was observed indifferently of parity. In conclusion, primiparity and the long photoperiod affect water buffalo cow's reproductive performance, decreasing pregnancy probability during the first 90 days postpartum.
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